A 121-Month Evaluation on How the Nation’s Real Estate Market Has Impacted the Economy
IRVINE, Calif., July 18, 2019 — CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its special report evaluating “The Role of Housing in the Longest Economic Expansion.” This year, the report analyzes the U.S. housing market’s impact on the latest 121-month economic expansion – the longest in the nation’s history. The report examines the housing economy and looks at the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates and housing activity from June 2009 through July 2019.
o The percent of homes with negative equity went from 25.9% in the first quarter of 2010 to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2019.
o Total home equity hit a record of $15.8 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2019, up from $6.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2009. Between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2019, the average equity per borrower increased from approximately $75,000 to approximately $171,000.
o Since 2010, the housing flip rate has increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2018, the number of properties bought and sold again within a two-year period reached its highest point at 11.4%.
o Since June 2009, home prices and rents have continued to grow. Through May 2019, home prices increased a cumulative 50% and single-family rents increased 33% in the United States.
Rising employment rates typically have a positive impact on the housing economy as it can lead to an increase in potential home buyers and a decrease in negative equity (often referred to as being underwater or upside down, meaning borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth). In the first quarter of 2010, 25.9% of the total number of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were in negative equity. As the market has improved over the past decade, this share dropped to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2019 (Table 1). A strong economy and an increase in total home equity helped to reduce the negative equity share. Total home equity reached a record of $15.8 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2019, up from $6.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2009.
“During the last nine years, the expansion has created more than 20 million jobs, raised family incomes and rebuilt consumer confidence,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “The longest stretch of mortgage rates below 5% in more than 60 years has supplemented these factors. These economic forces have driven a recovery in home sales, construction, prices and home equity wealth.”
Housing has long been associated with wealth creation in the United States. Home flipping, or the act of buying a property with the intent to sell it quickly for a profit, is a tactic that some homeowners use to generate profit. Since the last recession, the flipping rate has increased significantly: the two-year flip rate reached its highest point in the first quarter of 2018 at 11.4%, up from its lowest level (4.9%) in the third quarter of 2010. (Figure 4)
Home prices began falling just before the start of the recession and continued to decline at a more rapid pace throughout 2008 and 2009. However, from June 2009 through May 2019, home prices and rents have continued to grow. Through May 2019, home prices increased a cumulative 50% and single-family rents increased 33% in the United States. In the first quarter of 2019, 1.1 million new owners joined the housing economy, while the number of renters increased by 458,000. (Figure 3)
With increasing home prices after the recession, many first-time buyers delayed homeownership, choosing to rent for longer. However, in 2018, millennial buyers – those born from 1981 to 1996 – reversed this trend by becoming the largest cohort for finance-home purchases, accounting for 44% of home-purchase mortgage applications. These millennial buyers are looking for affordability and not buying in the typical coastal cities seen in the past. According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), in May 2019, four of the top 10 metros for millennial buyers were undervalued (Pittsburgh; Rochester, New York; Wichita, Kansas and Grand Rapids, Michigan), five metros were at value (Buffalo, New York; Milwaukee; Albany, New York; Provo, Utah and Des Moines, Iowa) and one metro was overvalued (Salt Lake City). Metros in California had the lowest percentage of millennials applying for a mortgage.
Despite an unemployment rate near a 50-year low, inflation rates below the Federal Reserve Board’s 2% target and strong GDP growth (3.1%) in the first quarter of 2019, concerns of a looming recession have been rising. The report explores recent recession indicators and looks at how the housing economy could weather the next dip.
To download and read the full special report, visit CoreLogic’s website. (link to be added.)
The data in this report represents home price activity reported through May 2019 and home equity data through the second quarter of 2019.
CoreLogic Home Equity Data: The amount of equity for each property is determined by comparing the estimated current value of the property against the mortgage debt outstanding (MDO). If the MDO is greater than the estimated value, then the property is determined to be in a negative equity position. If the estimated value is greater than the MDO, then the property is determined to be in a positive equity position. The data is first generated at the property level and aggregated to higher levels of geography. CoreLogic data includes more than 50 million properties with a mortgage, which accounts for more than 95% of all mortgages in the U.S. CoreLogic uses public record data as the source of the MDO, which includes both first-mortgage liens and second liens, and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization in order to capture the true level of MDO for each property. The calculations are not based on sampling, but rather on the full data set to avoid potential adverse selection due to sampling. The current value of the property is estimated using a suite of proprietary CoreLogic valuation techniques, including valuation models and the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI). In August 2016, the CoreLogic HPI was enhanced to include nearly one million additional repeat sales records from proprietary data sources that provide greater coverage in home price changes nationwide. The increased coverage is particularly useful in 14 non-disclosure states. Additionally, a new modeling methodology has been added to the HPI to weight outlier pairs, ensuring increased consistency and reducing month-over-month revisions. The use of the enhanced CoreLogic HPI was implemented with the Q2 2016 Equity report. Only data for mortgaged residential properties that have a current estimated value are included. There are several states or jurisdictions where the public record, current value or mortgage data coverage is thin and have been excluded from the analysis. These instances account for fewer than 5% of the total U.S. population. The percentage of homeowners with a mortgage is from the 2016 American Community Survey. Fourth quarter of 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% higher than the long-term, sustainable level. It defines an undervalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.
The CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI): The single-family rental market accounts for half of the rental housing stock, yet unlike the multifamily market,
which has many different sources of rent data, there are minimal quality adjusted single-family rent transaction data. The CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) serves to fill that void by applying a repeat pairing methodology to single-family rental listing data in the Multiple Listing Service. CoreLogic constructed the SFRI for over 70 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)—including 40 CBSAs with four value tiers— and a national composite index.
Labor and Materials Cost: A total component methodology applies current, localized labor and building materials and monitors property improvements to create a reconstruction cost estimate that is unique to the specific home at the time of the estimate. Leveraging this proprietary model, CoreLogic ran the very high to extreme risk zip codes of the before-mentioned four areas through the residential estimating tool to calculate the localized changes in reconstruction costs from 2016 through today.
House Flipping: Home flips are calculated using CoreLogic’s national level data set on housing transactions between 2000 and 2018 for the U.S. and the one hundred largest metropolitan areas. A home flip is defined as a sale of a property which had previously been sold within 24 months prior.
The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Chad Yoshinaka at email@example.com or Allyse Sanchez at firstname.lastname@example.org. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.